In The Beginning...
In 1789 delegates from across the states convened in Philadelphia initially with the purpose of fixing the numerous problems with the Articles of Confederation (our first form of government), soon it became all too apparent that the Articles were beyond worthy of redemption so their collective attentions turned to creating a new government. After a series of compromises and often grueling, bruising debates a new government emerged, a Constitutional Republic. A triumph of the Enlightenment Movement. One of the peculiar features of this new Constitution was the way the President would be chosen. Rather than by a direct vote of the people, the President would be chosen by the vote of electors who would be chosen by the vote of the people in their respective states. The reasons for such a...ahem..."unique" system are equally unique. In short, the Framers were fearful of a direct popular vote. They were worried that "uneducated" citizens (of which most at that time were), who did not understand the concepts or structures of the new Constitution could be swayed by a foreign (or domestic) entity convincing the people to choose a candidate who would be a threat to the interests of the nation, the government, and ultimately its citizens. So to safeguard such a happening, the Electoral College was born. The thought being that the electors would be "educated" citizens, who would recognize these cabals and refuse to allow such a threat to assume the presidency. This was the reason. The need for such an arrangement has been greatly debated and the chorus of debate has only grown louder within the last 20 years. Despite the merits of each sides argument, the Electoral College is still the method by which we chose our president today, and it will be on full display this Wednesday January 6, 2021 when the 117th Congress will officially meet for the first time and officially choose the next President of the United States.
Here's What Will Happen January 6th
The process for January 6th is outlined and explained in Article II, Section 1. Both Houses of Congress will meet at midday with Vice President Mike Pence presiding. Vice President Pence will then open the certified electoral votes from each state in alphabetical order beginning with Alabama and ending with Wyoming. Once Vice President Pence has opened the certified vote for the state and inspects it for the proper signatures from the state officials of that respective state validating that states electoral votes, he will then hand the certificate to "tellers" (selected members from each house and from both parties), the tellers will then announce the totals to Congress. After the teller reads the certificate any member from either house can stand and object to that state's vote for any reason. Vice President Pence will then ask that member to present their objection in writing and the objection must be supported by a member of both the House and the Senate. If the objection is not in writing or is not signed by a member from both the Senate and the House, Vice President Pence will dismiss the objection and continue on opening and reading the states votes.
However, if an objection meets the above criteria, both houses will retreat to their respective chambers to debate the objection. The debate can take no more than two hours and each member of the chamber will be allowed no more than five minutes to speak to the objection. At the end of the debate, each house will vote on the objection and a simple majority will carry the vote. At the end of the two hour time limit both house will come together again, for the objection to stand both the Senate and the House must have voted to support the objection. If both do not support the objection, the states electoral votes will stand and be counted. Vice President will then move to the next states certificate. During this process there are not any witness called, no testimony is taken, and any evidence to support the objection is not allowed. An objection is just that; an objection to the votes, nothing else.
Knowing that many Republicans plan to oppose a number of state's electoral votes and that there are a number of members of the House and the Senate to support those objections, what is normally a fairly perfunctory process may very well turn into a very long, drawn out process. So, the question begs: Will these objections be successful in overturning any of the electoral votes and/or overturning the 2020 Presidential Election? In short, the possibility of that happening is virtually non-existent. Remember, for any of these objections to stand and the electoral votes to not be counted, the majority of BOTH chambers must support the objection. That will not happen since the House is controlled by Democrats and in the Senate many Republican Senators have denounced such an effort and have stated they will not vote in favor of any objections. Making any objections to Joe Biden's electoral vote total an exercise in futility.
Has This Happened Before?
There are some instances in the past of electoral votes being questioned. The most notorious election was the election of 1876 when Democrat Samuel Tilden won the majority of votes and more electoral votes than Republican Rutherford B Hayes. However, Tilden did not have enough electoral votes to win the presidency, in dispute were 20 electoral votes from four states: Florida (it always seems to be Florida, doesn't it?), Louisiana, South Carolina, and Oregon. Both parties claimed victory although it seems highly unlikely in post Civil War America that any Republican would win any Southern state. The election was settled when a Republican controlled Congress decided to award the 20 electoral votes to Hayes and end Reconstruction in the South.
In 2001, George Bush narrowly defeated then Vice President Al Gore when he was awarded the electoral votes from Florida. There were several objections raised in Congress to the electoral votes of Florida. Vice President Gore had to rule several objections out of order and ultimately, with the bang of his gavel declared George W. Bush as the next President of the United States.
In 2016, with then Vice President Joe Biden presiding, there were numerous objections raised by Democrats to the election of Donald Trump. Vice President Biden ruled these objections out of order and without merit. Several times during this process, Biden angerly banged his gavel and admonished the Democrats reminding them the election was over.
A Death Knell: My Prediction
I have come to believe that midday on January 6th, 2021 will mark the time of death for the modern Republican Party. The aftermath of the 2020 election has been particularly stressful on the Republican Party. With each challenge, court loss, and controversy it has become increasingly clear; Republicans must decide between complete fealty to Donald Trump to retain his favor or seek to stake some independence from Trump and be labeled as a "RINO" (Republican In Name Only) at best or a traitor at worst. Indeed, Trump has already declared that he will make those Republicans whose loyalty was not complete pay for their infidelity.
The anticipated spectacle of January 6th will complete this split. Republicans will be forced to vote with Trump or the will of majority of American citizens. This will cause, I fear, an irreparable facture of the GOP. You will have the "Trumpers" faction and the "Traditional" Republican faction, which will lead to two distinctly different political parties and the end of the Republican Party. I say this with great sadness as I was a 30+ year proud member of the Republican Party. I truly believe my party will go the way of the Federalists, the Whigs and a host of other political parties whose infighting and questionable political stances doomed it to be remembered only to history.
In Conclusion...
Despite the chaos that it seems will be taking place outside of the Capitol and the histrionics that will be taking place inside the Capitol, Joe Biden will be formally elected as the 46th President of the United States on January 6th and will be inaugurated as such on January 20th.
