Shock of The Fall

Shocked.

To say I was anything other than that this past Tuesday night would be a lie. As I settled into my recliner to watch the election returns as I do every election night, I fully expected to watch the map color its self Blue as Hillary Clinton coasted her way to victory with the 270 needed electoral votes. Boy, was I wrong. I also was optimistic about some local election results, those turned out to be wrong as well. I’ve spent the last few days thinking about the results and looking at the numbers trying to make sense of what happened. This election, for better or for worse, has changed the direction of this nation and our community for some time.

National Election

For all the emotion that seemed to be swelling across the country for this election, it just didn’t seem to drive people to the polls. There were 4.6 million less votes cast in this election than were cast in 2012 and 6.5 million less votes cast this year than were cast in 2008. Mitt Romney received more votes (60,933,504 in 2012) than did Donald Trump (59,662,744). What is a significant difference about the votes in this election is from WHERE the votes came. Votes from the rural areas of the nation increased significantly over what they were for the past few presidential elections. Trump courted those voters vigorously and those voters responded. To me this indicates some frustration from rural America. For the past 50 years or so, American politics has been very focused on urban areas and the problems in the Big City, to the determent of rural America. So much focus has been on reducing crime rates in cities and reducing urban plight, meanwhile “hard core” drug use has skyrocketed in small town America, all the while many of these towns have not seen any significant infrastructure upgrades in decades. Furthermore, the free trade agreements that have largely benefited the large urban areas of the country have hurt the rural areas of the nation. Many people in rural America have felt abandoned and forgotten by their government. Until Donald Trump came along and openly courted them, parroting their thoughts, fears and concerns. Does Trump, a life-long big city denizen, truly share those same concerns or did he see an untapped electorate that he exploited? I guess only time will tell. What we do know for sure is that no one, not professional pollsters, not Democratic leaders, not even members of Trumps own election advisory team saw this election turning out the way it did. Shades of Truman-Dewey in 1948 for sure.

Who is to blame or, depending on your point of view, to take credit, for election? This is an interesting question to ponder because leading up to this election I was sure that my party, the GOP, was destined for a civil war between the moderate, old school, pragmatic conservatives such as myself, and the more radical, reactionary Tea Party Republicans who seemed to rally around Trump. However, it is now the Democratic Party that seems to be spiraling towards a civil war between the “New Democrats” of the Clinton ilk, and the liberal, more “progressive” wing of the party who supported Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. If I were to place blame on this election, or give credit depending on your point of view, I would have to place it squarely on the shoulders of the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign team. I would place blame for this election on the Democrats because they decided to choose a very flawed and unappealing candidate in an election year where the choice was between two incredibly flawed and unappealing candidates.  Had the Democrats chosen a more dynamic, less flawed candidate I think they have this election in a walk. However, they chose Clinton because they felt it was her turn, she had paid her dues and the party owed her the nomination. Emails between the Democratic Party top bosses leaked this past summer revealed as much (ahhhh, those pesky emails. But that is another story altogether). Clinton and her team share a fair amount of blame in this as well. They seemed to ignore key states, believing that since they were reliable for Obama the past two election cycles, they would continue to be so for Clinton. So, their attention was focused on other states and in the waning weeks, they began to focus on states where they really never had any hope of winning. As I discussed above, the electorate does not like to be ignored. Voters like to at least feel they are important and their wants and needs are understood. Trump and his team seemed to get this, Clinton and her team did not. Had Trump lost this election, I believe the postmortem narrative for the Republicans would have been very similar to the Democrats.

We all know what happened this past Tuesday night. Whether we want to admit it or not, whether we like it or not, whether we revel in the outcome or are reviled by it the outcome is what it is. While he may not have won the popular vote, Trump won the electoral vote and that is all he needed to do. As you probably know Trump was not my choice to be my party’s nominee for president nor did he receive my vote to be president. However, I am, if nothing else, a realist. I accept the fact that Donald Trump will be our- check that- will be my president until at least 2020. I’m not thrilled at the prospect, but I’m not indignant either. This is how elections go. Sometimes elections turn out the way you want them to and sometimes the elections turn out the way you don’t want them to. The fact of the matter is this; this is the United States and we are Americans. We may not always agree with the outcome of elections but we always abide by their results. I have not been on the winning side of a presidential election for the last three presidential election. I haven’t liked the outcome of an election since 2004, but I’ve always accepted the results. We always have. And we should now. We should want our president to be successful and to always wish them well. Because when they succeed, we as a nation and its people succeed as well. And when the president fails or is otherwise unsuccessful, we all share that outcome. Did some hurtful, ill-intentioned, bad people vote and support Trump? Without a doubt. I am also positive that there were hurtful, ill-intentioned, bad people who voted for Clinton. I truly believe that the vast majority of people who supported and voted for Trump were good people who honestly believed that their vote was in the best interest of this nation and its people. Just as the vast majority of Clinton supporters and voters believed about their vote. In addition to being a realist, I am also an eternal optimist.

As a realist and an optimist, as well as being a student of American History I know that the United States has had far, far more bad and average presidents than it has had good to great presidents. And the nation has always survived and often thrived because of or in spite of its president. I believe the same will happen this time around as well. It just may take a while for the shock and the sting of Tuesday to wear off.

Local Election

At this time last year Jefferson County School District was basking in the warm afterglow of the recall. This year we looked to complete the victory by passing a sorely needed mill and bond for the school district and its students. Last year 60% of the voters agreed with those in the school district that the current school board majority were bad for education, for teachers, for the community and for students. This year 52% of the voters did not see a need to pass a mill or a bond. Last year many people worked tirelessly to recall the school board majority and were rewarded for their efforts. This year many people worked tirelessly to direct more money into the school district and were handed defeat. So, the question begs, why the different outcome? Over the past days I have come up with several different theories but probably no one definitive answer. It is also very possible that my theories are not even close to the correct answer. But at this point, all we really have are theories.

Not Enough People Walked- This is true. We had about ½ the number of walkers for this election as we did for the recall last year. In fact, the number of walkers this year is very close to the number we had when the board majority flipped in 2013. So, why did we have so few walkers?

Exhausted- People were just too worn out for the last three years. Constant conflict, constant turmoil, and constant uncertainty will wear people out. I know several people have told me that they were tired and worn out and just couldn’t do it this year. That they were tired of fighting, they were tired of begging for support and votes and they knew that they would be asked to do it all again next year. They just needed a break.

Okay, I get that. I’m tired as well. Despite the outcome of the election, I am looking forward to this Saturday because for the first time I don’t have to go walking, knocking and talking. That will be very nice. However, we have to realize this is our reality. Will we need to go out walking, knocking and talking next year?        

Sigh...yes, we will.

Angry About Pay- I would have loved to have been made whole after taking a pay cut and a pay freeze several years ago to help out the district. But because of the hair brained scheme cooked up by WNW, most of the money available to increase pay was used up moving people back onto a pay scale. I was disappointed in my salary increase as much as everyone else but I also knew that to see any sizeable increase in my pay would only come if the mill passed. It didn’t and I’m not sure where we go from here in terms of salary. This much I do know; never again will I vote to take a pay cut or freeze my pay.

Mistrust About Where the Money Will Go- Yeah, I understand that. Under WNW, the school board majority voted to use money in vastly different ways than was promised to the people in the district. To be sure, WNW were not the only board to divert money to places other than where it was supposed to go. I don’t know how to overcome this obstacle other than to say I know this board and they seem to be very open and transparent. I believe they will do what they promised.

It Was Held During a Presidential Election- Holding any type of election during a regular Presidential election is always risky business. The reason is very simple; a lot more people vote in a Presidential election than they do in other elections. We had double the number of people who voted on the Mill and Bond (303,358 for the Mill and 301,665 for the Bond) than voted in the Recall (averaged 181,000 votes) in 2015. Any increase in the number of people voting always brings with it so many different variables. If you hold an election in an off year, the chances of your issue passing increases, especially if your issue involves any type of tax increase. The reason for this is very simple; only those who are particularly interested in the issue will take the time to vote and if you are able to hone in on your base with a laser focus and drive them to vote your chances of passing your issue dramatically increases. We saw this happen recently when the APEX Recreation District held a special election asking voters for a tax increase. They were very focused and deliberate in who they targeted in their voting drive.

People are naturally averse to any type of tax increase, particularly one in which they will not receive any direct benefit. Most people do not have any children or grandchildren in JeffCo Public Schools, so they would not see any direct benefit to them, but they would certainly see an impact in their pocketbook. And the pocketbook is the number one determiner of how people vote. So, when you increase the number of voters because of the nature of the election, and you are asking for a tax increase voters who would otherwise not vote on your particular issue will vote and the likelihood of those voters voting for a tax increase is fairly low.

It Was Too Long of a Ballot- Yes. Yes, it was a very long ballot. Ballot fatigue is a very real thing. However, in this election it did not seem to make a difference. 3A and 3B averaged around 302,000 votes total and the total number of votes cast in the Presidential election was 320,087. What is curious however is that Clinton carried Jefferson County with 156, 689 votes while 3A attracted 144,883 votes and 3B received 142,076 votes. Somewhere, somehow we lost 11-12,000 votes from Clinton to the school measures.

The Price Tag Was Too High- It was a lot of money at stake on the ballot. However, it was money that was needed. JeffCo has operated for far too long on far too little and we have finally reached that tipping point. Either there had to be a drastic increase of money to address several growing and festering issues or Draconian cut were going to have to be made. Unfortunately, the community chose the latter and the not the former.

The Recall Victory Was About the Board Majority’s Behavior and Less About Its Politics- This is an interesting theory. We all remember the nasty, brutish, bullying tactics employed by the past board majority. Calling its own students “pawns”, insulting teachers and parents, breaking promises to the public, and in general destroying the morale of the district. WNW and their actions were offensive and alarming. The public agreed with the employees of the district and voted with us overwhelmingly, removing those three from power. However, the community did not back the mill and bond measure. Perhaps, we misread their support. Perhaps the community was less offended by the politics of WNW and more by their actions. This would help explain why many of these same people who supported the recall voted against the mill and bond this year. WNW were elected by fairly healthy margins in 2013 and were ousted by almost the same margins in 2015.

JeffCo has always struggled to pass any mill and bond measures. Whereas, voters in the Boulder Valley School District have never met a tax increase they didn’t like. Voters in BVSD also have never voted in an unsupportive board either. This is an interesting theory. One I hope is nothing more than that, a theory, otherwise the future of JeffCo Schools is a bleak one indeed.

I’m sure there are other issues that are out there that I missed or haven’t yet heard. The bottom line is this: Jefferson County Public Schools lost its bid to adequately address its problems. So, where do we go from here as a district? I’m not sure, it’s really not for me to say. Generally speaking some schools will have to be closed and consolidated, some schools will need to go to split sessions or adopt a year-round schedule to accommodate the overcrowding. School fees are set to increase, some after school programs and possibly athletic programs will be eliminated. Schools will continue to deteriorate and school budgets will be cut. School employees will not see their salaries appreciably increase and the loss of teachers and staff to surrounding districts with higher salaries and better benefits will continue.

Epilogue

The outcome of elections is always the same. Half of the people are very pleased and the other half are not happy. Many will be jubilant while others will be angry. Some will be ecstatic while others will be depressed. But one thing is certain, no matter the outcome tomorrow always comes. This government has been existed for 227 years and survived 57 Presidential elections. I have no doubt this will continue. We may not agree with election outcomes, we may even be angry, but we always accept the outcome. This is what we do. We do this because we are unique as a people. We do this because we are Americans.

In the end, it does not matter if you are liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat, Jewish or Muslim or Catholic or Protestant or Atheist. It does not matter if you are male or female, gay or straight, young or old, black or white. All that matters in the end is that we are all people. We are all Americans. A unique boiling mixture of beliefs, cultures, lifestyles, races and ethnicities. Our society shouldn’t work but against all odds, it thrives. On this day and every day moving forward, remember that. We may disagree with the outcome of the election but we must always abide by the outcome. We may disagree with the President but the President must become our President because ultimately their success is our success. We may be disheartened by the outcome of the mill and bond, but we cannot allow it to interfere with our work because what we do as educators is enormously important work and our students don’t really care that we are angry, bewildered or upset they just want us to be there for them and help them become better people.

Do not allow old grudges or new rivalries divide us to the point of paralysis. Be kind to one another. Treat each other fairly. We are all people. We are all Americans. All of us are entitled to certain unalienable rights that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. Even those whose vote may be opposite of ours.